So I'd like to get some opinions on the future of the keyboard and text input in general. I don't use a tablet or a smartphone so I'm kind of out of the loop. Let's put aside the current technology for the moment. Do you think in ten years people will still be using on-screen keyboards? Will some kind of voice input take the place of what people used to type?

Right now most people use text input of some kind, even if they don't play muds, so it's at least conceivable to make the jump into parser-driven mudding (as distinct from some kind of mouse/touch keyword-based interface) using a kind of familiar interface. Do you see that changing in the future?

A related question I have is about in-game chat. How will this be affected by the future of text input? For example, I've never used voice chat; is it conceivable that this will mostly replace text chat for most games? Do you see some technology on the horizon that'll make private voice chat in public workable?

Anyway, I know it's all pie-in-the-sky stuff but I'm interested in a diversity of opinions (and any evidence to back it up of course!).

As long as you categorize user input as text input then analog keyboards are better at face value. The reason on-screen keyboards have become popular isn't because they're better than analog keyboards for typing. It's because the use case for text input has rapidly changed. It's not the primary input for these devices any more. One (sometimes lesser used) of many. Apps, even web apps, don't require typing of command lines to interact with them. They accept gestures, clicks, and a variety of actions via widgets.

In other words, people aren't using their ipads on screen keyboard to play typing games, or because of the superiority of word processing with on screen keyboards. Everyone I know, myself included, use analog devices (sometimes attached to the ipad, or other mobile device) to do these tasks. There's no evidence that speak to type is better. It's only been proven so far to be worse.

So is text input really the appropriate method of inputting commands going forward? I think the answer is clearly no. Distinguishing between people who like to read – lots of people – and people who like to type all day – not many people – is key to understanding why the popularity of muds has declined. This presents even more of a problem for games stuck in the 1980s as devices users have don't offer a convenient way to interface with your game.

I agree with Runter. I don't think the keyboard is going away as far as PC's go. On newer technology like the iPhone/Pad/Tampon, etc. I think there will eventually be a replacement even for the on-screen keyboard such as voice recognition to text. I'm actually surprised Steve Jobs didn't get that one working before his death. Voice recognition also comes with a LOT of problems such as completely different words being pronounced the same (to, too, two).

Regardless of what technology may come around in the next 10, 20, 30 years they can have my keyboard when they pry it out of my cold dead hands.

This can only work if you are ALONE. Hence why it will never have 'mass' usage.
People int the street are annoying enough with their phone, if they have to talk even when NOT talking to people it will be hell in no time.
(if someone ever start using speech on my side, you can bet he will get a 'delete contact' very soon, at least I will not be the only on annoyed….
If you are alone it most likely means you will prefer typing if you can anyway.

The next step wil lbe thought recognition. But I don't think voice will ever become mainstream. Will stay a niche market for blind people or stuff like that.

I disagree. Devices aren't smart enough to do it, but that doesn't mean they won't be in the future. I live in Singapore, one of the most tightly packed and connected places in the world. And it doesn't stop people from using voice to communicate with others through their phones and skype on the bus, train, ferries, or streets. Virtually everyone wears their own earphones with mics and if you're not, you're going to hear a lot of noise. But that's different from mics and what they pick up. The short term answer to making voice interfaces viable is better mics. The long term answer is better software that is able to distinguish noise of other users from commands of the owner through calibration and learning. And both short and long term solution depend on the ability to accurately interpret what is being dictated, which so far hasn't been perfect. It's a long ways down the road, but it's definitely before thought recognition.

Most people are dumb and unintelligible. Good luck with that.

Yeah, so it depends on software technology being able to actually understand the human language. Not just pattern matching against a dictionary. Actually understanding intent behind words, and anticipating conversation and what words probably are that are garbled. It's how we're able to easily understand others when lots of the data is missing. Like in loud places, or when the person doesn't speak perfectly. Yes, it's a long ways off, but don't think it's impossible. We're already making amazing progress.

> It's how we're able to easily understand others when lots of the data is missing.

huhu or more realistically:how easy to misunderstand each other because we don't use the same langage in the same way, as most people are illitetate. Even myself, my written english is probably a lot less clear than a native speaker.
When computer are able to understand human, it will mean they are more intelligent than most of them. Not necessarily a good thing for the human race.

it is way easier to check what somebody is looking at and the action 'follow, click go there' than to make him actually spell right 'click the third link on the page when starting from top…' as an example.
Most people cannot even express correctly what they want. I prefer have them kept silent while they figure it out.